Equity Market Outlook
Long-term outlook remains intact:
Going forward while all eyes are on the General Elections, all the three elements of the capex cycle (Housing, Corporate Capex & Govt Capex) are now firing and hence the potential global slowdown should have limited impact on India. A combination of a strong pent-up demand for housing, above average affordability and 12-year low unsold inventory should drive a multi-year virtuous housing cycle. Ditto for corporate capex with all time low D/E ratio for Indian corporate, along with a decade high capacity utilisation level and well capitalised banking system should drive corporate capex. Govt Capex could slowdown but private capex pick-up should more than offset.
Unlike every year, the budget would be a Vote on Account in this financial year. However, considering election year, one cannot rule out a populist measures being announced in the budget. During 2019-20, the first interim budget of the incumbent government saw various measures being implemented like PM Kisan Yojana – transferring Rs. 6000 per annum x ~12 crore farmers entailing an outlay of Rs.75,000 crore per annum. These sort of measures are expected to not only provide spending impetus at the lower strata of the society but is also expected to reinforce the positioning of the incumbent Government with a strong majority.